There were no surprises at the IMF’s decision to maintain their growth estimate for 2013 at 2.5% today, but the decision to reduce the 2014 estimate from 3.2% to 2.5% took some by surprise.
The countrywide figure of 2.5% masks huge regional variation in Brazil. Agriculture has performed very strongly this year following the reduction in the value of the Real and regions where agriculture is one of the principal economic drivers – such as Goiás – are likely to show stronger growth than 2.5%.
At 2.5%, the growth estimate for 2014 is the lowest among key emerging economies, according to the IMF:
GDP growth estimates by IMF @ 8-Oct-13
Country 2013 2014
Brazil 2.5% 2.5%
India 3.8% 5.1%
China 7.6% 7.3%
Russia 1.5% 3.0%